Ironically, those hopes may have been reignited by
a tragedy. The murders of four Jews – three
of them children – in Toulouse has changed the whole dynamic of the
campaign. As events unfolded, it emerged
that the shooter was the same person responsible for killing three soldiers the
week before. Speculation was rife that
the murderer was associated with the far-right, France’s answer to Norway’s
Anders Breivik. A couple of candidates
even dared to point fingers directly at Marine le Pen, accusing her of stoking
racial hatred with her inflammatory comments about ritual slaughter, halal
meat, prayer on the streets and the like.
Now it has emerged that the man responsible for these horrible crimes is
a radical Islamist of Algerian descent, who has received training from
Al-Qaeda. With this information, the game
changes. Henceforth, the political
agenda is likely to swing to the right, with national security, terrorism, law
and order, and anti-Islamism back on the menu in a major way. These issues will all play to the advantage
of the right.
In 2002, the agenda was dominated by similar
issues, coming only a few months after 9/11.
The result was the surprise qualification of far-right candidate Jean
Marie le Pen to the second round of the election, and the re-election of
Jacques Chirac. Since then, the economy
has loomed large in the public consciousness, while security issues have died
down. The poor state of the global
economy has led to the eviction of many political incumbents over the past four
years, and Sarkozy looked set to be the latest victim. Shifting the agenda away from the economy and
back onto security issues is therefore a political gift for him. However, he is aware that he needs to play
this one carefully. Trying to make
political gains out of human suffering is always a faux pas. The terrorist attacks on Spain in 2004, which
also came shortly before an election, resulted in the surprise victory of the left
after criticism of how the news was handled by the right-wing government.
So Sarkozy’s strategy has been to tread very
cautiously. He has taken off his
candidate hat for three days, and put back on the hat of the president. He has studiously avoided doing anything that
could be construed as campaigning.
Instead, he has been solemn and dignified, the leader uniting the
country in their hour of grief, speaking out against violence and rallying his
people. It is a smart and effective
strategy. Hollande has had little choice
but to follow Sarkozy’s lead, attending funerals and similar events by Sarkozy’s
side. But whereas Sarkozy can act in his
official capacity as president, Hollande is only a candidate, and therefore is
less well placed to separate his presence at such events from his campaign. He also looks like the junior partner, with
Sarkozy enjoying the stature and gravitas that only an incumbent president can
have.
Sarkozy’s efforts to remove himself from the fray
have been ably assisted by Marine le Pen.
Her party initially went very quiet, as rumours circulated of a
far-right fanatic that would have cast her own party in a bad light. Now that the true identity of the gunman has
been revealed, she has pulled no punches.
She has attacked all those who jumped to conclusions and pointed fingers
at the far-right, and has resumed (with vigour) her attacks on Islamic
extremism. She has also renewed her
calls to reinstate the death penalty.
Her bullish populism is unsurprising, given the unprecedented
opportunity to refocus the political agenda onto all her party’s pet
issues. She has nothing to lose and
might as well make the most of the chance to score political points. Meanwhile, Sarkozy can rise above the
populism of le Pen, safe in the knowledge that she is helping to steer the
campaign onto turf that will favour them both, without tarnishing him with the
brush of opportunism.
So who will win and lose in the new political
order? Le Pen is likely to win, with an
increased vote share in the first round, but she is still unlikely to qualify
to the second round. Sarkozy is also
likely to win, as more of le Pen’s votes might now transfer to Sarkozy in the
second round. In times of crisis,
uncertainty and insecurity, people like candidates on the right, and they like
the devil that they know. Meanwhile,
Hollande is likely to lose out. The shift
in the agenda will not be to his benefit, and the momentum is likely to swing
further in his rival’s favour. The
centrist candidate, François Bayrou, is likely to be the biggest loser of
all. He was too quick to point the
finger at the FN, and will now be forced to eat some humble pie. His accusations came on the same day that the
murders were announced, so he suffered the double indignity of reacting too
quickly, and getting it wrong. Sarkozy’s
policy of dignified silence, interspersed with soundbites of sorrow and
national resilience, was a much better strategy.
While the shift in agenda may not be sufficient to
change the outcome of the election, I would not rule out a comeback for
Sarkozy. The result is certainly likely
to be closer as a consequence of the events of Toulouse. For anyone who had hoped that these racially
motivated murders would force a decline in the racist undertones of the long
campaign, there appears to be plenty more disappointment in store.
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